Is Pump.fun’s $4 Billion Valuation Fair?

Key Takeaways

• Pump.fun’s $4B valuation may be conservative according to analysts at Messari, with projections as high as $7B to $20B under favorable market conditions.
• The platform has already generated $689M in revenue, with $134M in January 2025 alone.
• Its new DEX, PumpSwap, has earned $111M in fees since March, accelerating ecosystem growth.
• Meme coins still command 32%+ of Solana’s activity, underscoring PumpFun’s relevance.
• Analysts caution that the tokenomics and equity structure must be solid to ensure long-term success.

Why Analysts Say Pump.fun May Be Undervalued

Shi published a report earlier this week that reevaluated Pump.fun’s fundamentals and growth trajectory. His forecast: a valuation of $7 billion in the base case, possibly reaching $20 billion under optimal execution scenarios.

Pump.fun Ecosystem Revenue

Source: DefiLlama

This includes strategic elements like an airdrop and a token buyback mechanism, both of which could significantly increase demand and reduce float.

Shi points out that Pump.fun’s growth is intrinsically tied to the broader meme coin ecosystem on Solana, which has surged in popularity thanks to low fees, fast transactions, and increasing speculative interest.

$689 Million & Climbing

Pump.fun’s fundamentals are hard to ignore. Since its initial launch in Q1 2024, first on Ethereum Layer 2 Blast and then pivoting to Solana, the platform has been on a remarkable run. As of mid-2025, Pump.fun has generated a staggering $689 million in cumulative revenue, with $350 million of that earned in 2025 alone.

Pump.fun earned $134 million in revenue in just one month, a number that positioned it among the top three DeFi earners globally. This momentum continues despite a market cooldown following the LIBRA meme coin scandal earlier this year.

PumpSwap: Disrupting The Solana DEX Landscape

The March 2025 launch of PumpSwap, Pump.fun’s proprietary automated market maker (AMM), has further cemented the protocol’s ecosystem dominance. PumpSwap effectively displaced Raydium, the Solana-based DEX where Pump.fun tokens originally migrated after launch.

In just three months, PumpSwap has generated over $111 million in trading fees, with $17 million of that revenue flowing back directly to Pump.fun.

Since May, PumpSwap has introduced a revenue-sharing model, allowing half of the platform’s fees to be distributed back to token creators. This novel approach has incentivized developers to stay within the Pump.fun ecosystem, fueling further growth.

Meme Coins Still Rule Solana’s Mindshare

Despite skepticism from traditional investors, meme coins remain a powerful force within the Solana blockchain.

Different Meme Coins On Solana

Source: Messari Portals

More than 32% of Solana’s network activity revolves around meme-centric tokens like FARTCOIN and infrastructure platforms such as DEX aggregator Jupiter.

This trend underlines a broader truth, namely that speculation is not going anywhere, and platforms that streamline meme coin creation and liquidity, like Pump.fun, are uniquely positioned to capture that attention.

Analyst Warning: Token Structure Will Matter

While the optimism around Pump.fun is strong, Shi and other analysts have issued a caveat: the token or equity structure must be clear and investor-friendly.

The era of vague tokenomics is fading fast, with market participants increasingly demanding transparency and well-thought-out mechanisms.

If the platform hopes to reach its $7B to $20B potential, its upcoming token sale must address concerns around utility, governance, and long-term sustainability.

FAQ

What is Pump.fun?

Pump.fun is a meme coin launchpad originally built on Ethereum Layer 2 (Blast) and later expanded to Solana. It enables the fast deployment and trading of meme coins, and recently launched its own DEX, PumpSwap.

Why is Pump.fun’s valuation controversial?

Pump.fun’s reported $4 billion valuation has stirred debate in the crypto space. Critics argue it’s overhyped, but analysts like Sunny Shi believe it’s undervalued, citing strong revenue numbers and ecosystem dominance.