Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Recovers Following Ceasefire

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly dipped below $98,500 for the first time in 45 days but quickly recovered to above $105,000.
• $193 million in long positions were liquidated, but derivatives market stability indicates strong investor confidence.
• An 8% drop in hashrate raised concerns but appears unrelated to geopolitical unrest.
• Interest rate expectations have shifted, with markets now pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed cuts in 2025.
• While a rally toward $110,000 is possible, caution is advised amid ongoing global risks.

BTC Derivatives Market Holds Steady Despite Liquidations

With anxiety easing, traders are now speculating whether Bitcoin price prediction models support a push toward $110,000, or if more downside risks remain in play.

Bitcoin Futures OI

Source: Coinglass

While the 4.4% price drop over 12 hours may seem dramatic, such volatility is far from rare. Similar drawdowns have occurred three times in the last 30 days. Still, this recent dip did trigger $193 million in liquidations of bullish, leveraged Bitcoin positions, roughly 0.3% of total futures open interest.

Yet despite the liquidation wave, the Bitcoin derivatives market has remained notably steady. The total futures open interest still stands at $68 billion, virtually unchanged from Saturday, signaling strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Did The Middle East Conflict Impact Bitcoin Mining?

The recent regional unrest raised questions about potential impacts on Bitcoin mining operations. From Sunday to Thursday, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped 8%, falling to 865.1 million TH/s from 943.6 million TH/s. This sparked speculation about mining disruptions, particularly in Iran, where unverified reports suggest underground mining activity may be drawing as much as 2 gigawatts of power.

Accurate hashrate attribution by region remains difficult due to limited transparency. However, analysts were quick to caution against overinterpreting the drop.

Source: X (@DSBatten)

In fact, a similar dip occurred recently on April 22, when extreme weather in Texas and Oklahoma caused a 27% drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate. Heavy rains, large hail, and 17 confirmed tornadoes disrupted local energy infrastructure, prompting miners to shut down temporarily.

Macroeconomic Indicators & Fed Rate Outlook Shift

Meanwhile, broader macroeconomic signals are also influencing Bitcoin price prediction discussions. On Monday, oil prices dropped after reaching a peak of $77 over the weekend. This move coincided with a 1% rise in the S&P 500, suggesting renewed investor confidence.

Market participants are increasingly betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed maintains its current 4.25% rate through November has dropped to just 8.4%, down from 17.1% a week ago. Simultaneously, expectations for a rate cut to 3.75% or lower have climbed to 53%, up from 38%.

Lower interest rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as capital flows into higher-yielding alternatives amid a lower cost of borrowing.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hit $110K Soon?

While hopes of a continued rally are growing, some analysts urge caution. Betting on Bitcoin hitting $110,000 solely based on Middle East de-escalation may be premature. However, the swift rebound above $100,000 reinforces the idea that institutional demand for BTC remains robust.

As geopolitical uncertainties evolve and economic indicators shift, the Bitcoin price prediction narrative is likely to keep adapting. For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, but momentum could build quickly if favorable macroeconomic conditions persist.

FAQ

What is driving Bitcoin’s current price movement?
A mix of geopolitical events, U.S. Federal Reserve rate expectations, and institutional investor sentiment are currently influencing BTC price movements.

Why did Bitcoin’s hashrate drop?
While some speculate about disruptions in Iran, most analysts attribute the decline to routine fluctuations or U.S.-based weather-related energy issues.

How reliable are Bitcoin price predictions?
Price predictions are speculative and influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. No model guarantees accuracy.

Can Bitcoin hit $110K soon?
It’s possible if institutional demand remains strong and macroeconomic conditions support risk assets, but investors should remain cautious.

How do interest rates affect Bitcoin?
Lower interest rates typically make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive by reducing borrowing costs and increasing liquidity in financial markets.